you need to remember that some people wont even build mek on viper. i wouldn't take the guides as a "key to instant win" items on anyone, i mean huskar has nearly 84% winrate if he builds ethereal blade. is that a smart idea? no. is it likely that he was so far ahead he could buy whatever and still win? probably.
i have 100% winrate with flying courier in my inventory.
gg flying courier recipe op confirmed
On a more serious note, you have to consider that some items are early game items meant to be replaced eventually, such as Hand of Midas, and that they should only be in your inventory at the end of the game if you didn't farm enough to replace it with something better. As Knight mentioned, some items are fun items people get when ahead, and some items are just so ridiculous for certain heroes that nearly all games they appear are the result of stomps and fountain camping or something along those lines.
So take item win rates with a grain of salt, if you zoom out and look at the bigger picture you can get some interesting data but not everything is meant to be taken literally.
it means 46% of games that viper doesn't complete mek the game is over. Probably pubstomp side lanes and viper himself losing mid with low CS etc... I feel sorry for viper, he really has to win his own lane and gank successfully enemy side lanes just to have a chance compared to other heroes like TA or invoker who can sit mid and don't care if team is losing or not.
I don't gank side lanes, I shutdown their mid, farm aquila, mek, point booster, then we team fight at ~15-20 mins. Viper ganks are so easy to avoid if mid just calls missing, not worth leaving lane most times.
"i mean huskar has nearly 84% winrate if he builds ethereal blade. is that a smart idea? no. is it likely that he was so far ahead he could buy whatever and still win? probably."
For a good period of time you could Ghost Scepter and still attack with your orb, so that's probably most of the games where someone bought and eblade and won. It really doesn't hurt that a lot of Huskar's damage happens to be magical, and an eblade can hurt a lot once you have an armlet and a heart, and giving huskar the good stats Eblade provides REALLY doesn't hurt.
"Item win rates" as far as I can tell are "At the end of each game we look at the items you have and whether you won or lost"
I don't know how they tally it if you have multiples of an item at the end of a game. But the statistics are certainly biased for a lot of items, there's even placebo in place multiple times as item recipes.
As for an item you typically rush and keep until the end of the game like a Mek... It's gotta be a pretty accurate representation. 61% of the games with a viper who had built a mek ended up in his favor. That means the vipers that rush carry items and shadow blade are bringing down his winrate.
^ people build E blade on husker as part of a combo, aghs + VoD + orchid + E blade = kill any one with out bonus magic resist instantly. its a bad build but if you assume people are making E blade last then the super high win rate makes sense since they would already have at least 16,000 gold by the time they finished it .
There was a point where I would buy a Desolator Recipe before the game ended, just to buff up dat winrate.
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I can't figure out what item win rates imply. I mean I think it is a calculation of items in inventory after match ends. Viper's win rate is currently 53.98%. With mek it's 61.2%. Does that imply that most of the time when viper loses it's such a stomp he doesn't even finish a mek? Are dota games that lopsided? Just build a mek and you will most likely win? Seems really high for such a cheap item and one that's built quite often.